The Public Eye: Pension promises threaten California
cities, counties
Published Sunday, Apr. 11, 2010 - Sacramento Bee
This year, the city of Roseville will spend about as much to fund its pension
plan as it does on parks and recreation.
San Luis Obispo County will spend five times as much on pensions as it does
prosecuting criminals.
And Stanislaus County's pension costs will be nearly double its $23.5 million
general fund budget deficit.
The initial logic of increasing retirement benefits to retain quality
employees has been turned on its head: Paying for those benefits is forcing
local governments to lay off employees – and cut programs.
"The old joke is that General Motors is just a health insurance company that
makes cars on the side," San Luis Obispo County Supervisor Adam Hill said during
a pension presentation at a recent board meeting. "My concern is that the county
government is becoming a pension provider that provides government services on
the side."
Yet today's escalating annual pension payments barely touch the looming
shortfall: $28 billion in unfunded liabilities – the difference between what
pension systems have and the pension benefits their employees have earned – at
the 80 largest city and county governments in California, according to an
extensive Sacramento Bee review of pension plan valuation reports.
On top of that, those cities and counties owe about $8 billion in
pension-related bond debt – all in a time of shrinking budgets. In many areas,
the total pension shortfall is more than the annual payroll; in some, it is more
than the general fund budget.
Spread that debt evenly, and it comes out to about $4,000 per household in
those cities and counties.
Already, Californians feel the impact of the rising costs. Local governments
are cutting unrelated programs – everything from parks to public safety – to
help pay for pension plans. Downsizing likely will continue both because pension
contributions often are legal mandates, and, even with a recovering economy,
because much damage already has been done.
A very few places are whispering about the nuclear option: bankruptcy. The
Bay Area port city of Vallejo already went this route, largely to break its
agreements with its employees.
It wasn't supposed to turn out this way.
When local governments passed enhanced retirement benefits at the turn of the
millennium, the stock market was humming. Government leaders could just sit
back, watch their employees smile and let the market do the heavy lifting.
"We're not creating an unfunded liability," then-Fresno County administrative
officer Linzie L. Daniel vowed in 2000, when the county approved better
retirement benefits to be offset by expected investment returns.
Since then, unfunded liabilities have increased from less than $100 million
to $800 million in Fresno County.
'Five-year pain plan'
San Luis Obispo County's chief number cruncher, Assistant County
Administrator Dan Buckshi, fiddled with his PowerPoint presentation a few months
ago and warned his listeners that what he was about to show them was only the
third year in the county's "five-year pain plan."
The county supervisors in front of him chuckled feebly. They were well aware
of the pain the county had endured.
They had watched their work force dwindle by nearly 13 percent, from 2,700 in
2002-03 to an expected 2,350 later this year. They had instituted a hiring
freeze, consolidated jobs, encouraged early retirement, scaled back capital
projects and amortized losses over 10 years instead of five.
They also limited health care access for the poor by cutting community health
clinic funding.
And they knew it wasn't enough. The county still had a 2010-11 projected
budget deficit of $19 million and an annual pension bill that ate 11.2 percent
of the total budget.
"I wish I had something comforting to say," county Supervisor Frank Mecham
told the San Luis Obispo Tribune last month. "If you sit there and watch the
(stock) market every day, it will drive you to drink."
That pain is being felt all over.
Northeast of the state Capitol in Roseville, officials have cut 150 of 1,150
staff positions during the last year – more than 10 percent of its work force.
The $18 million the city must legally pay in pension contributions this year
could have preserved those jobs plus several new hires.
The south Placer County city faces $111 million in unfunded pension
liabilities, double the figure from just five years ago. As it stands now, the
city will be able to cover just 75 percent of its future pension expenses. An 80
percent funded ratio is generally considered healthy.
"Roseville has built a retirement compensation system that was based on an
old model of revenues," said city Finance Director Russ Branson. "Clearly, that
is a driver of costs."
And, down in the San Joaquin Valley, unfunded liabilities have quadrupled
during the past five years in Fresno County. The county also has about $550
million in outstanding pension obligation bonds.
Fresno County expects to pay more than $140 million into its pension system
next fiscal year – up 13 percent from this year. According to a recent report,
that contribution requirement is likely to grow during the next four years.
With revenue also falling, services are affected. The total number of Fresno
County employees dropped by 700, or 10 percent, from 2008 to 2009, financial
audits show. The county drastically cut its mental heath services budget,
reducing care for the homeless and indigent, and, like many other places, it
released a slew of jail inmates.
The worst-case scenario for these local governments isn't more cuts – it's
bankruptcy, a step that most insist is unlikely.
"Last time I checked, government is not going out of business; Merced County
is not going out of business," said county CEO Larry Combs.
Even places like Merced County that can cover just 65 percent or 70 percent
of their future liabilities are doing amazingly well, given the depth of the
recession, according to Dave Low, chairman of Californians for Health Care and
Retirement Security, which represents more than a million public employees on
pension, health care and labor issues.
"The very worst are still probably in very good condition," Low said.
Still, a decade ago, few would have predicted that Vallejo would go under.
Today, the city remains hung up in court, trying to cancel provisions in its
labor agreements that promised benefits it no longer can afford to pay.
As of its bankruptcy filing in 2008, Vallejo had roughly $88 million in
unfunded pension liabilities. Those liabilities equaled about 112 percent of the
city's annual general fund budget.
Combs' own county, Merced, is slipping toward that figure: Its pension bonds
and unfunded liabilities equal about 85 percent of its annual general fund
budget.
San Luis Obispo's situation is worse, with pension obligations now equal to
roughly 119 percent of its general fund.
How it came to this
About 85 former members of the Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District earn
annual pension benefits of more than $100,000, including former chief Donald
Mette, who makes almost $241,000 a year in retirement, according to a list
obtained from CalPERS by advocacy group California Pension Reform.
In Roseville, 17 former employees earn north of $100,000. In Merced County,
it's 37. In Stanislaus County, it's 50.
All of them can thank former Gov. Gray Davis.
In 1999, Davis and the state Legislature passed a generous set of pension
upgrades. Most public safety officers came out on top, eventually receiving 3
percent of their salary per year of service for life, after reaching age 50. The
improvements were heavily supported by labor unions, which had contributed large
sums to Davis' election war chest.
Nearly all California cities and counties followed Davis' lead, often passing
clauses that mandated better pay or benefits if a neighboring jurisdiction
received them.
While those "me too" enhancements get the most ink, they're only one factor –
and probably not the largest one at that – behind the pension morass facing
cities and counties. The other three factors:
• Faulty assumptions about the stock market.
• Bad advice from some professional advisers.
• Hiring followed by a plethora of raises.
It's a simple calculus: The more money government employees make, the more
they'll get in retirement.
Average pay at all California local governments rose 40 percent from $46,073
in 2000 to $64,284 in 2008 – a much faster rate of growth than inflation,
according to the U.S. Census Bureau. To keep up with inflation, those employees
would have needed just a 25 percent raise.
Unions pushed heavily for the raises, saying public employees had been
ignored during previous, leaner years.
In the city of Sacramento, the average pay of public safety employees grew 50
percent during that time frame, to $82,897, according to the city's latest
valuation report. In Oakland, average pay for police and fire employees has
tripled to $114,741 since 2000.
Combined with enhanced retirement plans, the salary jumps caused startling
leaps in pension payouts.
Using the same cities for comparison, in Sacramento, the average annual
benefit to former public safety employees who took a service retirement during
the past five years was $64,521, up 58 percent from a decade ago, valuation
reports show. In Oakland, the average annual benefit for recently retired public
safety employees has more than tripled since 2000 to $83,946 today.
While payroll and benefits packages are largely within the control of city
leaders, other influences on pension costs are not.
Roughly three-fourths of benefits are typically paid with returns on
investments. Once the recession hit and dragged down the stock market, the
burden fell to local governments to pick up the slack.
Local governments generally have counted on about an 8 percent annual return
on their investments. Between 2007 and 2008, many instead saw declines of 15
percent or more.
In Stanislaus County, for example, officials watched their retirement
portfolio lose more than $400 million – 30 percent – between early 2008 and
mid-2009. About half of those losses have been erased by recent stock market
gains.
On top of all this, many counties were getting bad advice about the costs of
their pension plans – advice that haunts them in today's budget talks.
Governments hire actuaries to make educated guesses about how much a plan
will need to meets its obligation to retirees over two or three decades. Their
assumptions are based on everything from when the average employee will retire
to how long they will live and how the market will perform.
A recent audit in Stanislaus County found that its former actuarial firm had
made mistakes in predicting how many employees would draw pension benefits. The
actuary assumed that more employees would opt for retirement cashouts, which are
cheaper to fund, instead of monthly benefits. Based largely on those
predictions, the county seriously underfunded its plan.
Fresno County claims its actuary had employees paying a share of pension
obligations that should have been covered by the county. The county eventually
had to cough up millions.
Just as damaging, actuaries told local governments during the boom years that
they didn't need to put any money into the retirement system because the market
was performing so well. That wasn't a mandate; local governments could still
sock money away, but few did.
"Most of the cities took pension holidays," said Low, the public employee
advocate. "That is a pretty big reason for all this."
Search for solutions
At a glance, the city of Fresno looks to be in far better shape than
Fresno County. Its pension plan is fully funded, and its annual contributions to
that plan are relatively small.
Dig deeper, though, and some of that advantage is an illusion, conjured up by
pension obligation bonds. One-third of pension plans are well-funded – they can
meet 90 percent of their future obligations – but half of those well-funded
plans are saddled with bonds.
They've borrowed to buy down debt, offloading the bill to future
taxpayers.
Having already deeply cut services and being wary of raising taxes, many
local governments hope to pass pension costs on to employees by making them pay
a larger share of their pension contributions.
The most dramatic version of this approach follows Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger's lead and tries to repeal many of the enhanced benefits approved
during the Davis regime.
In Merced County, Combs – the county chief executive – and the current board
of supervisors favor a plan in which new employees would receive a scaled back
annual pension equal to 2 percent of their yearly salary multiplied by their
years of employment. Merced's current plan is 3 percent at age 50 for safety
workers, and 3 percent at age 60 for others.
Such shifts sound minuscule, but they would make a significant difference. A
55-year-old Merced County sheriff's deputy with a final annual salary of $75,000
and 30 years of service gets an annual pension of about $68,000 currently, but
would get only $45,000 under the new plan.
"I have to believe everyone understands that pension costs are going to break
all of the local governments in California," said Vito Chiesa, a supervisor in
Stanislaus County, which soon will negotiate for similar reductions in benefits.
"I think everyone will see it is unsustainable."
That's likely too optimistic. Stanislaus County, for example, has closed its
sheriff's deputy training academy for the coming year, saying the market is
flooded with laid-off candidates. Yet the local union still argues that the
benefits are essential for attracting and retaining employees.
"The retirement benefit is a huge hiring point," said Vince Bizzini,
president of the Stanislaus Sworn Deputies Association.
This month, Stanislaus County leaders reversed the enhanced benefits they
gave to workers in 2002, but only for workers who are hired after the end of
this year and who aren't represented by unions. The county has 413 unrepresented
workers, mostly managers and elected officials.
Low, the employee advocate, predicted that unions will bargain on pension
issues in good faith. But, he said, it's unfair to view them as the linchpin for
fixing local government finance problems.
Regardless, asking employees to pay down a city's pension obligations is a
little like trying to cut down a tree with a knife.
About one-third of the 80 cities and counties examined by The Bee – including
Merced, Orange and Fresno counties – now have unfunded liabilities that equal or
exceed the size of their annual payroll. So even if governments told their
workers, "Sorry, but your entire salary will be diverted to pay off pension debt
for the next year," there would be debt to spare.
That leaves taxpayers. The pension bill facing them likely will balloon in
years to come.
Currently, 15 percent to 30 percent of local governments' annual payroll goes
into their pension system – a quarter or so for every dollar spent on
paychecks.
That adds up. Together, all local governments in the state paid $11 billion
into their pension plans during 2008, or about $900 per California household,
according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Millions more went toward paying off
pension bonds.
Dwight Stenbakken, deputy executive director of the League of California
Cities, predicts that contribution rates will expand to about 30 percent or 40
percent of payroll in most places. CalPERS officials partially agree, saying
that, due to retirement and market projections, contributions will rise for the
next decade.
It's a hard sell – cutting fat pension checks while cutting government
services – that has exhausted many local government leaders.
"We're trying to maintain credibility with taxpayers," Stenbakken said, "but,
right now, I'm not sure this is defensible."
ABOUT THIS REPORT
This story was a collaboration among The McClatchy Co.'s five California
newspapers. Contributing reporting were: Brad Branan, Fresno Bee; Ken Carlson,
Modesto Bee; Bob Cuddy, San Luis Obispo Tribune; Danielle Gaines, Merced
Sun-Star; and Phillip Reese, The Sacramento Bee. Reese, who did the data
analysis and wrote the front-page story, also watched hours of video recordings
of local government meetings where pensions were discussed.
Reese pulled data from the most recent available actuarial valuation reports
for pension plans of most of the state's 40 largest cities and 40 largest
counties. In almost all cases, these reports covered fiscal 2009 or 2008. In a
few cases, data came from a local government's comprehensive annual financial
report.
Cities and counties included in the analysis were selected based on U.S.
census and CalPERS data about the size of their work force. Every household's
share of local government pension debt was determined by adding unfunded
liabilities and bond debt at the 40 largest city governments and the 40 largest
counties, then dividing them by the number of households.
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